Economists are thrifty bunch. If they do use credit cards, they never miss a payment. They never pay the 10%+ APR charged by credit card companies for balance transfers. They do not buy homes that they cannot afford, and if they take on a mortgage, they read the fine print. They understand that the teaser rate of an adjustable-rate mortgage is exactly that, a teaser.
An unintended consequence of this thriftiness is that economists are not equipped to understand the behavior of highly-indebted people. Economists cannot model the behavior of “NINJA Loans” (“No-Income-No-Job-and-No-Assets”) because NINJA loans should have never existed to start with.
The bank should have never extended credit to a NINJA and the NINJA should have never taken credit, knowing that he had no hope of paying it back. yet people do stupid things, and highly-indebted people do not follow the logic of economics textbooks.
Anybody who has had to deal with a highly-indebted person, either as a friend, family member or business partner, will tell you the same thing: that person will take the deal that offers the most cash right now with a complete disregard for long-term consequences. in economics terms, highly-indebted persons have an infinite discount rate and an infinite preference for the present, which leads them to make decisions that can have disastrous long-term effects.
The sub-prime crisis constitutes the most glaring example of this schizophrenic behavior, and our collective inability to understand or refrain it. the explosive growth of U.S. public debt is the next illustration of this principle. as usual, economists attack the problem with their standard tools, which boil down to the following three arguments:
–Public debt is bad because it represents a claim of current generations on the earnings of unborn generations. these unborn generations cannot vote on how the money is spent, they cannot ensure that the money will be put to productive uses and they may not be in a position to repay that debt.
–Public debt is also bad because it increases the dependency of the U.S. government on foreign sources of capital, particularly Asian central banks, which may be accumulating claims on U.S. national assets for strategic reasons.
–Public debt is bad because it crowds out private investment. Every dollar that goes into treasuries could have flown into corporate bonds or equities. as a result, companies find it harder to finance productive projects.
All of these arguments are true, but they miss the point. It is like giving a lecture on compound interest to an over-indebted person about to sign for a tenth credit card. It won’t work: as long as the person gets more cash right now by taking the card, that person will take the card.
Applying the same logic to the U.S. government, debt will continue to grow as long as the government can raise more cash by issuing debt than it costs to repay maturing debt and pay interest costs. and incentives to issue debt have never been higher. Let’s look at the numbers for 2011:
Government And People Are Both Spendthrifts With Credit Cards